Well, with the news of the Mets signing free agent pitcher Tom Glavine, I feel a lot more secure now…
The U Files #13: The Case of the Curious Contract
The deal will make the Mets look good to many observers. People will cry out joyously, "Wilpon finally stepped to the plate!!! The Mets signed a big name free agent!!!" But how much will it actually help them? To estimate the value of Glavine to the Mets, I calculated how the presence of Glavine would have changed the fortunes of the 2002 Mets had he pitched here and posted the same numbers. In doing so I assumed he will replace Steve Trachsel, who is a free agent. Glavine pitched 224.1 innings and gave up 85 runs. Trachsel gave up 80 runs in 173.2 innings of work. Assuming the 50.2 extra innings Glavine pitched would be innings not pitched by the bullpen, and the bullpen pitched to the same RA, this makes for 21 fewer runs allowed by the pen. The rest is a matter of simple math. The Mets gave up 703 runs in 2002. Taking away Trachsel's 80 runs, adding Glavine's 85, and subtracting 21 from the bullpen adds up to a net gain of 16 runs saved. The Pythagorean Theory in...
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