The U Files # 48: Dollars and Sense II

Chances Are Millwood Will Be Overpaid

The Mets have been as overpaid as bad in recent years, and though many of the more outstanding examples are position players, Met pitchers have not been free of the bug. We have already found a way to estimate the dollar value of free agent position players, and now we will use a similar method to find the value of free agent pitchers. (Free Preview of Premium Content)

As with hitters, we start with an adjusted three year weighted average performance. In the case of pitchers, we apply a unique step of first finding component runs allowed, adjusted for DIPS, so that what can be labeled under the broad term "luck" does not influence our picture of a pitcher's talent level. Each year is adjusted to 2003 league level, and the result is adjusted for park and from AL or NL to MLB. This leaves all pitchers on equal footing so that valid comparisons may be made. We can then use 2003 MLB average RA to determine ML average runs in the appropriate number of innings. Replacement level is placed 25 percent worse.

Kevin Millwood

IP

R

AdjR

PkAdjR

LgAdjR

LgAvgR

ReplR

RAR

203.5

91

91.9

93.14

95.75

107.86

134.83

39.08



Millwood has pitched 217 and 222 innings the last two years. His average IP is held down by his 2001 when he pitched 121.0 innings. Given 203.5 IP, Millwood is worth 7.05 million dollars above replacement, or 7.35 million overall. If we give him credit for the IP he could rack up if healthy at the same RA, his Runs above Replacement climbs to 47.37 and his dollar value to $8.84 million in 2003 dollars. As with position players, his correct value in 2003-4 offseason dollars may be adjusted down from the quoted figure to account for the state of the market. Then, if Millwood receives as much as his agent will be asking for, he will be overpaid.

Bartolo Colon

IP

R

AdjR

PkAdjR

LgAdjR

LgAvgR

ReplR

RAR

232.6

116.5

117

115

111.5

123.3

154.1

42.6



Colon's IP total needs no adjustment. If healthy as he has been in recent years, Colon will pitch as many innings as any pitcher could be expected to. The issue with a Colon signing is, how will his weight affect his ability to perform in the future. Based on the numbers he has posted the last three years, his value is $7.98 million dollars.

Andy Pettitte

IP

R

AdjR

PkAdjR

LgAdjR

LgAvgR

ReplR

RAR

193.5

93.33

93.43

95.01

92.12

102.6

128.2

36.08



Calculation of Pettitte's s performance level is simpler than in the first two cases, since Pettitte has not switched team, or in Colon's case, league. Pettitte is interesting because he is a pitcher who would consistently be considered "unlucky" by DIPS year by year. In his case, since his career average batting average on balls in play is high, Pettitte's DIPS numbers adjusted to the league average, or to the Yankees team average, will not yield results consistent with Pettitte's performance. Unlike a pitcher like Glendon Rusch, Pettitte is not "chronically unlucky" to as great a degree, and allows fewer home runs. Thus, Pettitte remains a successful pitcher.

As with Millwood, Pettitte has had a season of less than usual IP due to injury, in his case 2002. In this case, I counted his 2002 once and his 2001 twice in calculating weighted averages (and his 2003 thrice). Based on the numbers above, Pettitte is worth $6.81 dollars in 2003 value.

Be sure to check out Darren's Dollars and Sense for the Hitters....for premium subscribers only!

Subscribe to NYMfansonly.com today! Only $79.95 brings you one full year of Total Access Pass, and all premium content on NYfansonly.com, Scout™ Player and Roster Database (including the 'Hot News' at the top of the site), Breaking News and Information, Total Access to all TheInsiders.com Websites, and Player Pages, detailing the progress and careers of players from high school, the minors, and the pro ranks.

Sample the NYfansonly.com Total Access Pass™ at no risk for 5 days, then pay only $7.95 or $21.95. If you want to save 2 months off the monthly subscription price, simply choose the annual NYfansonly.com Total Access Pass™ at $79.95.

Subscribe to NYMfansonly.com




Do you have an opinion on the Mets? Be sure to let us know on the message board. NYfansonly.com is always looking for die-hard Mets fans who would like to be writers for the site. Click here to learn more on how to become a Mets beat writer for NYfansonly.com.

InsidePitchMagazine.com Recommended Stories